basil hawkins' cartomancy continued: probability

prompted by convo with @shzdoffy <3, part one here

knowing that this is more work than oda put in, here's what i've worked out as a possible way to use an enormous tarot spread for hawkins' probability readings. to be clear, i think this is total bullshit, moreso than tarot itself. the most any serious tarot reader would do is pose a question, draw a single card, and take that as a "yes," "no," "likely," "unlikely," what have you based on the gist of the card's meaning. however, i need this model for myself as i write the kawkins prequel fic, where we will argue about it

the spread

i like that oda didn't entertain for one second that hawkins would place his cards horizontally. firstly, it doesn't make for nice manga panels and practically requires a flat surface. secondly, hawkins' spreads seem to have at minimum eight cards, which is enormous. more to interpret if you're doing a classic 10-card spread like the celtic cross.

appropriately, i'm using my pip deck, the golden visconti-sforza where the minor arcana resemble playing cards instead of the classic smith illustrations. i don't read reversals and shuffle my cards so they don't happen, but this is not my daily deck, so i'll make it hawkins' and allow reversals (jesus christ we're down bad). what i drew with the question, "what's the probability i will finish my hawkins horoscope post this week?":

i laid this out counter clockwise like a birth chart but you could do this in a line or rows it does not matter

1. 3 of coins, reversed
2. the hanged man (xii), reversed
3. judgment (xx), reversed
4. 7 of coins
5. the devil (xv), reversed
6. the chariot (vii), reversed
7. ace of wands, reversed
8. the emperor (iv), reversed
9. justice (viii)^, reversed
10. two of cups

^ the major arcana have different numbering in different traditions. viii is strength in the waite-smith.

method 1: pure arithmetic (meaning-neutral)

1. draw 10 cards. your starting value is 50% for 1:1 odds.
2. for the minor arcana, add or subtract from 1-14 as matches their orientation.
3. for the major arcana, add or subtract from 0-21 as appropriate.

as you can see, none of this really has anything to do with tarot, so you could do something similar with a 52-card playing deck. this gets us the simple arithmetic of

50 - 3 - 12 - 20 + 7 - 15 - 7 - 1 - 4 - 8 + 2 = -11 (????)

-11 percent! (yikes! and probability can't be negative!!)

here's what i don't like about this option: it's simplistic, and most cards have more nuance. they're not black and white, positive or negative (hence why i hate reversals). allowing reversals closes you to the possibilities of roses to thorns, you know?

method 2: with interpretation

i agree with most of the above except for two cards: the devil and the emperor.

1. 3 of coins reversed: upright, this is card about community and collaboration and tbh mutual aid; more of an alliance or coalition than cozy friendship. reversed, it's about a lack of cooperation. so i stand by -3.
2. the hanged man reversed: I LIKE THE HANGED MAN. i think it's a neutral to positive card. he hangs by his foot, not his neck. he is j chilling, contemplating, he's chosen to be there as an act of sacrifice. in one piece, the hanged man is luffy smiling on the gallows in loguetown, or the g-5 showing a thumbs up as they save tashigi, or any of the times zoro or sanji fall back to defend the rear as the other straw hats run ahead. reversed? that is not my friend. the hanged man reversed is just the doubt and fear that is surely running under the surface of all the aforementioned. can you tell i hate reversals? whatever. still -12.
3. judgment reversed: judgment is assessment. luffy in udon saying "not enough" or "still not right" when trying to learn ryou. reversed, it's stubbornness and a refusal to learn from your past or take advice, like hawkins ignoring drake's suggestion that he betray kaidou, or law and kid going after emperors despite knowing they needed each other to defeat big mom. i guess i stand by -20 for this too.
4. seven of coins upright: the classic imagery for the seven of coins is a guy sowing, hard work that will pay off later. +7 stands here too.
5. the devil reversed: NOW we're getting somewhere. firstly, i think the first thing hawkins would have thought upon seeing kaidou was he looks like the devil. secondly, the devil is one of few major arcana i struggle to see as double-edged. classic booklet interpretations frankly get finger-waggy and ableist by saying the devil signifies addiction, mental instability, violence, what have you, but it's way more about temptation and fear to me, giving in to fear with unhealthy copes and trapping yourself. it's hawkins losing to his animal fear of kaidou and big mom that he can't believe kid and killer don't feel or are able to ignore. reversed? reversed is kid and killer! this is positive! +15!
6. the chariot reversed: the chariot is about advancing forward despite fear, perhaps in a suicide charge. there's something about contradictions here that feels related to temperance. it's associated with mars, but also cancer, a sign where it's fallen (that i gave hawkins in his birth chart). reversed? man i don't know. i guess it's someone who can't square with those contradictions and just freezes. still a -7.
7. ace of wands reversed: i want to ignore this integer so bad. aces are my favorite cards, really, as the purest manifestation of their suit/element, but. whatever we'll stick to -1.
8. the emperor reversed: i don't know how we didn't see this card in the arc where two yonko fall. the emperor is stubborn and conservative and martial, tightly controlling his domain possibly through isolation. does this sound familiar? does this sound like, i don't know, sakoku? reversed, i think it must be the one piece myth of a benevolent, open-minded king, the sort that the straw hats go around restoring to the throne: nefertari cobra, riku, momonosuke. much like with the devil and much like sabo not really giving a fuck about cobra (based), i reject a subtraction. +4.
9. justice reversed. this is a loaded term in one piece and if justice came up in a reading done for any marine they would start crying. i think. i don't have much to say here though. still -8.
10. two of cups. a lovely card about balance. still +2.

as you can see, my opinions of the emperor and the devil are coored by my anti-imperialism and anti-monarchism, and my relationship to the concept of "sin" as a lapsed catholic who obviously got into tarot and astrology as a rebellion.

our end result is:

50 - 3 - 12 - 20 + 7 + 15 - 7 - 1 + 4 - 8 + 2 = 27

27 percent?

i'm no math whiz, but i'm sure it's still possible to get a negative value in the second method. here's a third one for shits and gigs:

method 3: that's too many majors

1. draw 10 cards. your starting value is 50% for 1:1 odds.
2. for the minor arcana, add or subtract from 1-14 as matches their orientation.
3. for the major arcana, multiply by 2 if upright; divide by 2 if reversed.

this is also stupid as hell, to be clear, because it means we have to think about PEMDAS. jesus christ. i do not want to try because this spread is 70% majors. no!!

a conclusion

this is absolute nonsense and shenanigans and i'm even more pissed that i tried it